The full scale of the growth potential enjoyed by the global renewable energy industry has been underlined today with the release of a major new UN-commissioned report.
Renewable energy could meet about 77 per cent of the world’s energy needs by mid-century and play a crucial role in fighting global warming, the UN’s climate scientists said in a major report.
The long awaited final report by the194-nation Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) said renewable sources had grown rapidly, were widely competitive with fossil energies and, technically, had almost limitless potential.
But cleaner energy still faces formidable barriers, and governments must boost its development and peel back fossil-fuel subsidies for that potential to be realised, the panel cautioned.
“This report has a huge implication for the manner in which energy is going to be developed and used across the globe in the years ahead,” IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri said at a press conference in Abu Dhabi.
The thousand-page analysis, unveiled at a May 5-13 meeting of the IPCC, evaluates 164 development scenarios and is designed to guide decision-makers in government and business.
“Renewable energy sources can contribute substantially to human wellbeing by sustainably supplying energy and stabilising the climate,” said Ottmar Edenhofer, a co-chair of the report.
The price tag will be steep, though. Different projections put it at US$1.4 trillion to US$5.1 trillion (AU$1.31 trillion to AU$4.76 trillion) for the coming decade, and another US$1.5 trillion to US$7.2 trillion (AU$1.4 trillion to AU$6.72 trillion) for 2021-2030.
However, factoring in the benefits of curbing global warming, Mr Pachauri said, would make this seem a bargain.
“These costs will still be less than one per cent of the global GDP going up to 2050. This is an extremely significant figure, it shows that the cost is within reach,” he said.
Six types of renewables accounted in 2008 for 12.9 per cent of global energy supply: biomass (10.2 per cent), hydro (2.3 per cent), wind (0.2 per cent), solar (0.1 per cent), geothermal (0.1 per cent) and ocean (0.002 per cent), according to the study.
Fossil fuels make up 85 per cent, and nuclear energy two per cent.
Once traditional use of firewood and animal dung for heating and cooking is set aside, the clean energy share drops to about seven per cent.
While still a small slice of a global energy mix, “growth in renewables has been very impressive”, Mr Pachauri said.
New investment in 2010 stood at US$243 billion (AU$227 billion), up from US$186 billion (AU$174 billion) the year before, Adnan Amin, director-general of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), reported at the press conference.
A majority of the scenarios reviewed show a “substantial increase” – ranging from three-to-20 fold, “in the deployment of renewable energy by 2030, 2050 and beyond,” he said.
Clean energy’s share of future supply varied hugely across different forecasts.
The most conservative projected a 15-per cent share by mid-century and the most ambitious predicted it will cover three-quarters of all energy needs.
The first major report by the Nobel-winning panel since 2007 concluded that there is virtually unlimited technical potential for renewables, especially from solar energy.
“The opportunities are tremendous. We know that the technical potential for renewables is far in excess of demand,” said Mr Amin.
Clean sources of power must play a critical role if the UN-backed goal of preventing average global temperatures from rising more than two degrees Celsius is to be met, the IPCC said.
UN climate talks have remained largely stalemated since the near collapse of the 2009 climate summit in Copenhagen, even as scientists warn that climate change is accelerating.
The report “underscores the irreplaceable potential of renewable energies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions”, said Christiana Figueres, the top UN official overseeing climate talks.
The report also said clean energy solutions could “leapfrog” expensive traditional power sources to reach hundreds of millions of people living without electricity, especially in Africa.
“If you want to widen access to energy services in rural areas, there is a need to integrate renewable energy policies,” said Youba Sokona, another of the report’s co-chairs.
Green groups and renewable energy industry groups have welcomed the report.
“This is an invitation to governments to initiate a radical overhaul of their policies and place renewable energy centre stage,” said Sven Teske of Greenpeace International.
