Tuesday 02 September 2014

Australia’s hot 60 years outstrips previous 1000

hot-weather-US-graphic

A new scientific study indicates the rise in temperatures in and around Australia since 1950 has been unprecedented for 1000 years.

In the first study of its type in the region a team led by scientists at the University of Melbourne has found no period during the past 1000 years matches the warming experienced in Australasia in the past 60 years.

The research, published in the Journal of Climate, used 27 different natural indicators like tree rings and ice cores to come to the conclusion.

It will be a part of the next United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.

The findings show that no other period in the past 1000 years matches the temperature rises Australia and the region has experienced in the past 60 years.

Report co-author Dr Joelle Gergis said the findings were significant.

“It does show that the post-1950 warming is unusual in the Australasian region,” she said.

“A lot of these sorts of studies have come out of the northern hemisphere and for the first time we have been able to say ‘well we have collected all of our natural records from our region and this is what it shows and the warming is real and it is in the Australian region, not in some far away place’,” she said.

Dr Gergis says the study used decades of work from 30 scientists who had been collecting natural data to reconstruct temperatures before human records started in 1910.

“So really what these are are climate proxies. They are not direct temperature records but we use them as stand-ins or surrogates for temperature records,” she said.

“What we do is compare these natural records with the observed temperature records and then develop a statistical relationship and take that relationship back centuries into the past.”

Co-author Professor David Karoly said the strength of the study was that it relied more on direct observations and measurements than climate modelling.

“Nothing is absolutely certain in science, but we say with very high confidence because we have repeated the analysis alone for the uncertainties that the warming in the last 50 years is very unusual and very likely cannot be explained by natural climate variability alone,” he said.

Dr Gergis said the scientists had minimised the variability in their model by crunching the data 3000 different ways.

“What we were able to see is that in 95 per cent of the reconstructions, we actually see that the post-1950 warming observed in the region is unprecedented in the context of the last millennium so it is not dependent on a loss of records back in time or the different combination of record,” she said.

The government-funded study will be Australia’s contribution to the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report due in 2014, and is part of an international collaboration that aims to reconstruct the past 2000 years of climate in every part of the world.

8 Comments

  1. John Barksdale says:

    How can we see the raw data analysis that was used to arrive at the conclusions of the authors instead of the summary?

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  2. David Twomey says:

    John, You would need to contact the report authors at the university of Melbourne to discuss access to their raw data
    David Twomey

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