Research by the Potsdam Institute suggests the economic cost of meeting ambitious climate change targets in the European Union would be less than 0.7 per cent of GDP.
As the EU’s long-running negotiations over a new package of climate targets enter its final days, a major new study has revealed the bloc could deliver deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions through the 2020s at a negligible cost to the economy.
The study was undertaken by 12 research groups and led by a team at Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
It concluded that cutting emissions 40 per cent against 1990 levels by 2030 would be likely to cost less than an additional 0.7 per cent of economic activity.
The findings, just released, come ahead of the announcement this week of the European Commission’s proposals for a new set of climate targets and policies to replace the current targets for 2020s.
British environmental news website BusinessGreen reports that according to various reports, key figures within Brussels still remain divided on the level of emission reduction targets that should be adopted for 2030.
BusinessGreen reports speculation is mounting that the bloc could opt for a weaker than expected target of 35 per cent.
Moreover, it remains uncertain as to whether or not member states will opt to extend current targets for the use of renewable energy and energy efficiency measures through to 2030 or back United Kingdom calls for such technology-specific targets to be shelved.
The new report argues that more ambitious emissions targets of up to 40 per cent can be met using existing and cost-effective technologies.
“In the next two decades, it is possible to achieve the transformation using existing technologies,” said Dr Brigitte Knopf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who led the study.
However, she added that the modelling showed that after 2030 new technologies would be required to deliver the deep 80 per cent emission cuts the bloc has pledged to provide by 2050.
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r Knopf also argued that ambitious targets and policies were needed over the next two decades to encourage firms to invest in the innovative new technologies that will be needed by mid-century.
“A clear price signal has to be set today, for instance in the European Emissions Trading System,” she said.
“It would provide an incentive for innovation that would prevent energy systems from being locked into long-lasting investments in CO2-intensive technologies, such as coal-fired power plants.”
The report also warned that an emission reduction target of at least 40 per cent by 2030 was needed if the bloc was to remain on track towards delivering its 2050 target.
“The current 20 per cent emission reductions by 2020 could fall short of achieving the long-term climate targets set by the EU,” said Dr Enrica De Cian of the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change in Italy.
“Short-term emissions reductions of at least 40 per cent by 2030 are necessary to eventually meet the long-term target of an 80 per cent reduction by 2050 aspired by the EU.”
BusinessGreen reports the modelling contained in the report demonstrates that there are a number of different options available for policymakers that would ensure the 40 per cent target is met, based on a varying mix of renewable energy, nuclear power, and energy efficiency measures.
Significantly, the report argues that the 40 per cent target for 2040 could be met without currently unproven carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies.
However, it added that CCS was likely to be needed globally to help carbon intensive emerging economies decarbonise in a cost-effe
