Britain’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) has warned that climate change is going to leave the world’s militaries facing a major increase in humanitarian efforts and disaster relief.
The warning comes from the MoD Global Strategic Trends program which has issued an updated report on the threats and opportunities for world peace and security out to 2045.
Climate change is one of several megatrends considered by the report, and it’s a big one, it will affect every region of the world through impacts such as rising sea levels, drought and food shortages, the report finds.
The Carbon Brief website reports that it is worth noting that climate change features heavily in the MoD’s analysis.
Almost every section of its report, from transport to energy to health, makes reference to climate change impacts.
People often talk about ‘ mainstreaming‘ climate change into all aspects of policy-making or decision taking.
The Carbon Brief reports that it looks like the MoD has taken this to heart.
Perhaps because its impacts are so all encompassing, climate change is mentioned more frequently, with 151 references, than growth (98), water (141), health (85), energy (147) or migration (34).
This prominence reflects growing military concern over climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’ that can exacerbate existing problems as well as creating new ones.
The Carbon Brief reports the MoD gives a brief run-down of what is expected to happen as our climate changes over the next 30 years.
The much-discussed global warming “pause” is nothing special, the report says.
Periods of slow-down and speed-up in surface temperature increases have happened before and are likely to happen again, as excess heat energy is absorbed or pumped out by the ocean.
Some climate impacts are inevitable even if emissions stopped tomorrow, the MoD notes, because of inertia in the climate system.
That means temperatures in 2045 are likely to have increased by 1.4 degrees Celsius above late 20th century averages, for instance.
The report also says sea levels are likely to rise by between 32 and 38 centimetres by 2050.
Despite climate inertia the MoD thinks cutting emissions is likely to be the most important way to manage climate change in future.
It warns against relying on geoengineering techniques such as pumping sulphates into the stratosphere to engineer a cooler climate.
The MoD thinks coastal flooding, climate-driven migration and rising food prices due to drought and water stress will be some of the most significant impacts of climate change over the next 30 years.
The Carbon Brief reports that according to the MoD there are already between 270 and 310 million people at risk of coastal flooding.
Without adaptation to climate-driven sea level rise this could increase by more than a third, the MoD said.
The risks are being amplified by rapid urbanisation and the location of many Asian mega-cities in coastal areas.
The most dramatic impacts of sea level rise will be felt in small island states.
This week the Pacific islanders of Kiribati bought land in Fiji to insure themselves against rising sea levels.
The MoD said: “By 2045, a growing number of low-lying islands could be at risk of near total submersion, displacing entire communities.”
Climate change is one of the factors that will drive an estimated 96 million people to migrate between 2010 and 2050, and the United Kingdom will be one of their main destinations, according to the report.
“Migration is likely to increase, with people moving within, and outside, their country of origin to seek work or to escape the effects of climate change.
“Climate change is likely to drive some people from areas that are particularly badly affected, although not everyone who wishes to leave is likely to be able to do so.
“The main estimated net receivers of migrants are likely to be the United States, Canada, UK and Australia, while the main estimated senders are Bangladesh, China, India and Mexico.”
The MoD points out that developing countries will probably feel the effects of climate change most acutely and will be least able to spend money adapting to its consequences.
The money needed for humanitarian aid is expected to soar by 1600 per cent over the next 20 years, “in large part due to the effects of climate change”, the MoD said.
Another factor driving migrations would be drought, heat stress, desertification and the consequent impact on food production.
Droughts and heatwaves were likely to increase in frequency and duration, the MoD said.
The impacts of climate change on crop yields were complicated but would be negative on average across the world.
It says: “When the effects of climate change are taken into account, the food price increase above present levels could be as much as 100 per cent.”
The Carbon Brief reports that one particularly stark scenario considered by the MoD would see worse-than-expected “catastrophic climate change” after only limited action to reduce emissions.
This isn’t a prediction, it’s a low probability outcome that the MoD thinks needs consideration because of the potentially high impacts.
This scenario would see temperature rises leading to long heat waves in temperate zones like Europe, sustained droughts contributing to repeated harvest failures and severe food shortages.
This could lead to “sudden mass migration” across national borders and “widespread social unrest”.
The Carbon Brief reports what is notable is that the MoD is the only part of government doing this sort of long-range analysis, according to futurologist Ian Shields who was involved in earlier versions of the global strategic trends report.
