In a major policy shift a senior Chinese government adviser has said China will set an absolute cap on its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from 2016.
The announcement came a day after the United States announced new targets for its power sector, signalling a potential breakthrough in tough United Nations climate talks.
Reuters Newsagency reports progress in global climate negotiations has often been held back by a deep split between rich and poor nations, led by the United States and China, respectively, over who should step up their game to reduce emissions.
However, the adviser’s statement, coupled with the US announcement, sparked optimism among observers hoping to see the decades-old deadlock broken.
The steps come ahead of a global meet on climate change starting in Germany later today.
China, the world’s biggest emitter, will set a total cap on its CO2 emissions when its next five-year plan comes into force in 2016, Professor He Jiankun, chairman of China’s Advisory Committee on Climate Change, told a conference in Beijing.
“The government will use two ways to control CO2 emissions in the next five-year plan, by intensity and an absolute cap,” he said.
Reuters reports carbon emissions in the coal-reliant economy are likely to continue to grow until 2030, but setting an absolute cap instead of pegging them to the level of economic growth means they will be more tightly regulated and not spiral out of control.
“The Chinese announcement marks potentially the most important turning point in the global scene on climate change for a decade,” said Professor Michael Grubb, an expert in international energy and climate policy at University College London.
It is not clear at what level the cap would be set, and a final number is unlikely to be released until China has worked out more details of the five-year plan, possibly sometime next year.
The announcement comes a day after the United States, the world’s second-biggest emitter, for the first time announced plans to rein in carbon emissions from its power sector.
That is a move the administration of President Barack Obama hopes can inject ambition into the slow-moving international climate negotiations.
“The China-US one is a key trust relationship in climate talks and if they are rising above that it sends a very powerful signal to the rest of the world to get serious,” said John Connor, CEO of Melbourne-based think tank The Climate Institute.
Focus will now turn to Bonn in Germany, where negotiators from over 190 nations meet from today for the latest 10-day round of talks in a process meant to lead to a new global climate treaty in Paris in December 2015.
“Interesting hint from Beijing, although the key point will be where the cap is set,” said a spokesman for European Union Climate Action Commissioner Connie Hedegaard.
“If ambitious and announced well in advance of Paris, it could be a game changer.”
China, often blamed by rich countries for holding back progress in UN talks on emissions due to its reluctance to take on a binding target, is stepping up efforts to clean up or shut down carbon-emitting sources such as coal-fired power plants, factories and vehicles.
These emission sources have also created a much-publicised pollution crisis that ends hundreds of thousands lives prematurely every year.
Despite the absolute cap on CO2, Professor He said China’s greenhouse gas emissions would only peak in 2030, at around 11 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent.
Its emissions currently stand at around seven to 9.5 billion tonnes.
However, Professor He said that would depend on China achieving a real reduction in coal consumption from sometime around 2020 or 2025, and on the nation meeting its target of having 150-200 gigawatts of nuclear power capacity by 2030.
The share of non-fossil fuels in China’s energy mix would reach 20 to 25 per cent in 2030, Professor He added.
