Australia’s future prosperity is at risk unless bold action is taken along with a commit to long-term thinking including that the shift to 100 per cent renewable energy in Australia’s grid as inevitable, and likely by 2050.
This is the key message contained in the Australian National Outlook 2019 (ANO 2019), a report that the CSIRO has just published along with academics, economists, policy analysis and businesses such as National Australia Bank.
CSIRO, Australia’s leading scientific research organisation, said the new research used a scenario approach to model different visions of Australia in 2060.
The research contrasted two core scenarios: a base case called Slow Decline, and an Outlook Vision scenario which represents what Australia could achieve.
These scenarios took account of 13 different national issues, as well as two global contexts relating to trade and action on climate change.
The research found there are profound differences in long-term outcomes between these two scenarios.
It found that key to Australia’s future prosperity is for governments to embrace technological change and plan for the transition to a 100 per cent renewable energy grid, along with working cooperatively with other countries to tackle climate change.
NAB chair Ken Henry, a former Treasury Secretary, said that customers and shareholders were putting pressures on companies to adopt a positive vision for the Australian economy that included investments in renewable energy, which meant Australia was on a pathway towards 100 per cent renewable energy irrespective of the policy environment.
“Australia’s energy transition is going to happen anyway, almost no matter what the policy framework is.
“Decisions taken by business leaders today will ensure that by about mid-century, Australia’s electricity sector will be 100 per cent renewable energy.
“That’s almost irrespective of what decisions are taken at a policy level.” Mr Henry said in an interview with ABCTV’s The Business.
Power bills could be about 60 per cent less in 40 years’ time than they are today if energy efficiencies and low emissions technologies are taken advantage of, the new report suggests.
Australia would enter a “slow decline” if the challenges were not dealt with, the report said.
AAP Newsagency reports the positive scenario was achieved through pulling policy levers in industry, urban planning, energy, land use and cultural shifts.
For instance, the energy policy levers include increasing efficiencies through technology and turning renewable energy into economic opportunities, such as exporting hydrogen.
The electricity grid could be almost entirely 100 per cent renewable energy by 2050, due to declining costs and market forces.
“Even with that transition to renewable energy, energy affordability increases,” research lead James Deverell told AAP.
“Households could be spending as much as 64 per cent less on electricity as a percentage of their income compared to today.”
Australia could have 37 per cent renewable energy by 2060 and ‘net zero’ greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
In the alternative scenario Australia meets its international emissions reduction targets through the use of carryover credits, before pollution levels stagnate after 2030.
Looking to industry and economic growth, new technology should be embraced to boost productivity and employees should undergo education to keep up with technological change.
The third lever sees Australia finding new sources of economic growth, such as advanced manufacturing and low emissions energy.
AAP reports living standards could be 33 to 36 per cent higher and wages 90 per cent higher in such an outlook.
The report included input from more than 50 leaders from companies such as NAB, ASX, Shell, Red Cross, Uniting Care, who were asked what they thought was important for Australia’s future.
The study also flags major challenges for Australia in the future, namely disruptive technologies, changing demographics, the rise of Asia, social cohesion, climate change and loss of trust in institutions.
Mr Deverell said achieving the positive scenario is in Australia’s control.
“It’s not going to happen automatically.
“It’s going to take bold leadership, strong action and, really, a long-term view across these five shifts,” he said.
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