According to analysis just published by the European Union’s employment agency Eurofound, hitting the Paris Agreement targets on emissions reduction would be “positive for the EU as a whole”, with investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency helping to boost economic growth and employment.
Meeting the two degrees Celsius target set out in the United Nations sponsored Paris Agreement would result in 1.1 per cent additional growth between now and 2030 across EU member states.
In addition the Eurofound report said that compared to a business-as-usual scenario, it would lead to a 0.5 per cent bump in employment, .
Bolstered by higher spending on renewable energy and energy efficiency, alongside lower spending on fossil fuels, the report projects a 1.7 per cent investment boost over the period, as well as a 0.7 per cent rise in consumption across the EU by 2030.
The British environmental news website BusinessGreen reports the findings are based on modelling data from Cambridge Econometrics and Eurofound’s European Jobs Monitor.
The research suggests the low-carbon transition will prove broadly positive for Europe, although the projections differ across individual member states.
On a national level Latvia, Malta and Belgium are expected to experience the largest GDP boost, with Latvia’s “by far the most significant” at six per cent over the period.
This is largely due to the required investment in energy efficiency and a reduction in fossil fuel imports relative to GDP, the paper notes.
Meanwhile Belgium, Spain and Germany are projected to enjoy marked increases in jobs as a result of the economic restructuring required to meet the Paris Agreement goals.
Labour-intensive sectors such as retail, hospitality and catering are tipped as major beneficiaries of increased consumer spending, partly driven by expected lower energy prices.
BusinessGreen reports the additional investment required in energy efficiency and renewable energy across the EU will also benefit the construction sector and its supply chain, with more workers needed to retrofit buildings and construct clean power plants, according to the report.
Many of these jobs will be “at the bottom and middle of the wage distribution”, it explained, filled by “lower-educated employees and involve a performance of less advanced tasks”.
However, all the news is not good and due to its large coal mining sector, Poland is earmarked as the only EU country set to experience a very slight net decrease in employment under the modelled scenario.
The report projects “large job losses” in the country, with benefits from increased investment in energy efficiency and renewable energy offset by rising petrol and electricity prices, which is expected to push down consumer spending over the period.
Eurofound chief researcher Dr Donald Storrie said there were particular “economic dividends” for Europe from implementing the Paris Agreement, but warned the social impacts on certain sections could cause turbulence.
“Climate change is expected to have very serious implications for living and working conditions on a global scale; it is the people who are socially, economically, or otherwise marginalised that are particularly vulnerable,” Dr Storrie said.
The report also looks briefly at the impact of meeting the Paris Agreement goals on a global level.
China is expected to enjoy a 4.7 per cent growth in GDP and a 2.3 per cent rise in employment under the modelling, the paper reports, thanks to renewable energy and energy efficiency investment.
The United States, however, is projected to experience a drop in GDP of 3.4 per cent, with employment falling by 1.6 per cent, driven by reduced oil and gas production activities such as shale gas extraction.
