Global infrastructure survey: conviction is near-universal but the era of broad, undifferentiated infrastructure exposure is over

Anish Butani, Managing Director and Head of Infrastructure at bfinance

bfinance survey of more than 40 institutional investors managing over US$4 trillion finds broad enthusiasm giving way to greater selectivity and discipline

Institutional investor conviction in infrastructure remains exceptionally strong – but the way capital is being deployed is changing materially, according to a major new global survey from bfinance, the independent investment consultancy that advises more than 620 institutional investors across 47 countries.

The bfinance Global Infrastructure Survey 2026, based on one-to-one interviews with more than 40 senior institutional investors – including CIOs and Heads of Infrastructure – managing over US$4 trillion across 13 countries, found that more than 90% of respondents view infrastructure positively, 50% plan to increase their allocation, and 97% expect to commit capital in 2026.

Yet the survey also reveals that infrastructure is no longer treated as an automatic or undifferentiated allocation. Investors are becoming sharply more selective: pulling back from greenfield development and expressing growing caution around mega-fund fees and AI-driven digital infrastructure valuations. Meanwhile, there is increasing focus on operational brownfield assets, mid-cap strategies, European markets and shorter-duration fund structures.

Geopolitics and AI bubble fears top the agenda

Geopolitics emerged as the single biggest macro concern, cited by 25% of respondents, followed by regulatory and policy risk at 22%. Investors described geopolitics as an umbrella risk, cascading into inflation, supply chains and policy direction in ways that are difficult to anticipate.

Fears of an AI-related overbuild in digital infrastructure – flagged by 18% of respondents – have also risen sharply up the agenda. Investors cited concentration risk, valuation stretch and the potential for oversupply as key concerns, even as digital infrastructure remains a core sector preference overall.

The greenfield gap

One of the survey’s most striking findings is the disconnect between stated flexibility and actual portfolio construction. While 68% of investors report no formal cap on greenfield exposure, 74% describe their portfolios as predominantly brownfield (existing, operational assets) in practice – a gap driven by experience with rising construction costs, supply chain disruption and the difficulties of justifying j-curve profiles internally.

Investors said they increasingly favour operational assets with contracted cash flows and predictable downside protection. Energy transition remains the most preferred sector at 38%, followed by digital infrastructure at 24%, power and electrification at 18% and transport at 10%.

Geographic preferences shift toward Europe

Geographic allocation is also changing. Europe is the most preferred region for incremental capital, cited by 42% of investors, valued for its regulatory visibility, energy security priorities and perceived political stability. North America, at 27%, remains a core allocation but faces harder scrutiny over political and policy uncertainty. APAC and emerging markets remain selective, niche exposures for most, typically accessed via developed market or specialist managers.

Mid-cap strategies gain ground as fee pressure intensifies

Fee structures are under significant pressure. Twenty-two per cent of investors named lower fees as the single improvement most likely to unlock additional capital, with performance fees a particular area of concern over alignment.

This dynamic is driving a clear preference for mid-cap strategies over large-cap mega-funds, with 53% of respondents favouring mid-cap opportunities. Investors cited less competition, greater operational influence and broader exit optionality as key advantages. bfinance’s own performance analysis supports this, with small-cap funds showing stronger DPI outcomes across vintages, while large-cap funds have performed in line with or below broader asset class metrics.

Duration preferences and fund structure

Investors are also shortening their duration expectations. Sixty-one per cent prefer capital to be returned within a 15-year window, with governance and alignment concerns cited as key factors limiting appetite for longer-dated structures. Closed-ended funds remain the dominant deployment vehicle, though open-ended structures play a specific role in portfolio construction, pacing and liquidity management for some investors.

Return targets have shifted upward by approximately 100–200 basis points across strategies compared to predecessor vintages, reflecting a higher cost of capital and a broader repricing of risk. Most investors now target nominal returns of 8–10%, with income accounting for around half of total returns.

Anish Butani, Managing Director and Head of Infrastructure at bfinance, said: “This survey captures a market entering a more mature phase. The broad enthusiasm of the last decade is being replaced by far greater precision around risk, manager selection and portfolio construction. This is a refinement of capital allocation, not a retreat – and investors who approach it with rigour stand to benefit from a rich opportunity set in the years ahead.”

Frithjof van Zyp, Senior Director, Australia at bfinance, said: “What this survey tells us is that Australian investors are maturing in how they approach infrastructure. The days of broad, undifferentiated exposure are over. We’re seeing a much sharper focus on operational assets, on fee efficiency, and on making sure the risk in a portfolio is the risk investors actually want to be taking.”

The bfinance Global Infrastructure Survey 2026

The bfinance Global Infrastructure Survey captured insights from more than 40 institutional investors globally managing over US$4 trillion in assets. Participants were senior investment decision-makers from across 13 countries from Europe, North America, Asia and ANZ. One-to-one interviews were conducted by the senior team during Q4 2025. Responses have been anonymised.

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About bfinance

bfinance is an award-winning specialist investment consultancy providing investment insights to the world’s leading institutional and private wealth investors. Founded in 1999, the London-headquartered firm has worked with more than 620 clients across 47 countries.The company has 12 offices globally, partnering with pension funds, insurers, endowments, foundations, family offices and wealth managers.

Services include manager research, fee analysis, performance monitoring, risk analytics, and a range of portfolio and governance solutions. With differentiated data-led processes tailored to each client, bfinance acts as an extension of internal investment teams, providing investment insight by combining deep sector expertise with a global perspective.

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