The Australian government’s own marine research agency believes modelling done for the expansion of a coal terminal near the Great Barrier Reef is “deficient” and “flawed”.
Documents obtained by Australia’s national broadcaster, the ABC, reveal the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) raised serious concerns about how far dredge material could spread in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park.
ABC News reports as part of the expansion of the coal shipping terminal at Abbot Point near Bowen in north Queensland, three million cubic metres of sand and silt will be dredged and dumped in the World Heritage-listed marine park area.
The Environment Minister in the conservative Liberal-National government, Greg Hunt, late last year approved the dredging with a range of conditions.
The matter has since been discussed by UNESCO, the United Nations body responsible for administer World Heritage sites, and a decision to place the reef on the World Heritage in Danger list has been deferred until next year.
ABC News reports in June last year, AIMS reviewed the dredging proposal for the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) finding “significant uncertainty” in the magnitude and impacts associated with the dredging.
The report said there was uncertainty with the results of the modelling, due to limitations and flaws in the applications of the models.
“The modelling to support the proponent’s assertion that the disposal of dredge material will not impact other Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Area zones is deficient, as model results indicate sediment plumes from the dredging activity will extend beyond the modelling domain.”
The review also raised concerns modelling for large-scale ocean currents was not included, a guideline that is now in place for future proposals.
“There is the potential that the modelling will not correctly resolve the rate and extent of longshore transport driven by larger scale ocean circulation processes,” the AIMS review said.
“GBRMPA released modelling guidelines in mid 2012 specifying the need for inclusion of wind, tidal and large scale ocean circulation forcing effects; however this was subsequent to the release of the terms of reference for the Abbot Point Public Environment Report.”
A Freedom of Information request by the North Queensland Conservation Council’s (NQCC) Jeremy Tager led to the document being obtained.
“It is almost impossible to actually conduct an impact assessment to understand the impacts of an activity if virtually everything that you’re assessing is deeply uncertain,” Mr Tager told ABC News.
The proponent of the Abbot Point expansion, North Queensland Bulk Ports Corporation (NQBPC) said in a statement, that the modelling work was ongoing as part of a permit requirement to investigate whether there is a better spot within the marine park area to dump the dredge spoil.
ABC News reports dredging expert Dr Brett Kettle said the modelling uncertainty was not a high-risk issue.
The marine biologist with 30 years experience managed the 1993 dredging at the Port of Townsville.
Dr Kettle believes the un-modelled plumes from the dredging would be so dispersed, they would ultimately only amount to a slight muddying of seawater.
NQBPC said its modelling was “supported by a level of rigour beyond what has been undertaken for any other dredging project”.
However, it did not clarify whether its current modelling involved large-scale ocean currents, as the new GBRMPA guidelines suggest.
ABC News reports Dr Kettle believed incorporating the large-scale ocean currents could have produced different results.
Despite the concerns raised by AIMS in January, the GBRMPA approved the dumping of dredge spoil in the marine park.
In March, the ABC revealed the authority was planning to reject the dumping late last year because it was of “high risk” to the environment and values of the marine park.
ABC News reports the NQCC has launched legal action against the Marine Park Authority over the approval and f or that reason, the GBRMPA declined to comment.
The legal challenge will be heard later this year.
Meanwhile, India’s Adani Group has expressed serious concerns to the Queensland government over its involvement in the Abbot Point coal terminal.
According to The Australian Financial Review newspaper, Adani Australia Coal Terminal chief executive Sandeep Mehta told Queensland’s conservative LNP environment minister if dredging of the seabed did not occur between March 1 and June 30 next year it would face heavy losses and may scrap expansion plans for the site.
Court documents obtained by the AFR show Adani pointing to “a real risk the project will not proceed”.
The AFR reports that Adani could face losses of around $1 billion annually if the port expansion does not proceed by 2017, because the group will be unable to export thermal coal from its Carmichael mine.
