Solar output is expected to lead a surge in renewable power supply in the next decade, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said, with renewables seen accounting for 80 per cent of growth in global electricity generation under current conditions.
In its annual World Energy Outlook released today, the IEA said in its central scenario, which reflects policy intentions and targets already announced, renewables are expected to overtake coal as the primary means of producing electricity by 2025.
Reuters Newsagency reports the combined share of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind in global generation will rise to almost 30 per cent in 2030 from eight per cent in 2019, it said, with solar PV capacity growing by an average 12 per cent a year.
“I see solar becoming the new king of the world’s electricity markets,” IEA Executive Director Dr Fatih Birol said.
“Based on today’s policy settings, it is on track to set new records for deployment every year after 2022.”
Maturing technology and support mechanisms have cut financing costs for major solar PV projects, the IEA said, helping to bring down output costs overall.
Reuters reports solar PV is now cheaper than new coal- or gas-fired power plants in most countries, it said.
Power generation from renewables is the only major source of energy that continued to grow in 2020, the Paris-based agency added.
A more ambitious scenario, including for instance the adoption of net-zero emissions targets by 2050, would see PV electricity generation perform more strongly still, the report said.
Despite the increase in solar and wind power, carbon emissions are projected to pick up in 2021 after a 2.4 gigatonne (Gt) drop in 2020, and to exceed 2019 levels in 2027 before growing to 36Gt in 2030, it added.
Reuters reports the IEA said gaps remain in many cases between long-term ambitions and specific near-term plans to curb emissions.
Integrating new wind and solar power will depend on adequate investment in all parts of the system, including distribution networks, the report added.
However, revenue shortfalls, potentially arising from lower-than-expected demand, non-payment of bills, or the deteriorating finances of utilities in developing economies, could make power grids a weak link.
At the same time the IEA says a slow economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic threatens to delay a full rebound in world energy demand to 2025.
In its central scenario, a vaccine and therapeutics could mean the global economy rebounds in 2021 and energy demand recovers by 2023.
But under a “delayed recovery scenario”, the timeline is pushed back two years, it said.
In such a case, the IEA predicts “a deeper near-term slump erodes the growth potential of the economy, high unemployment wears away human capital, and bankruptcies and structural economic changes mean that some physical assets become unproductive as well.”
Overall, the energy watchdog said it was too soon to say whether the pandemic had acted as a spur or a setback to governments and the energy industry as they seek to make the industry more sustainable.
EcoNews is an independent publication that relies on contributions from its readers.
WE’RE BUILDING A PLATFORM WITH A CLEAR FOCUS ON THE ENVIRONMENT, CULTURAL AND SOCIAL GOOD. CONTRIBUTE AND TOGETHER WE CAN MAKE AN IMPACT.
If you value EcoNews, but are unable to contribute via sponsorship or advertising we ask that you promote our online store The Native Shop – www.nativeshop.com.au via your social media to assist us to fund this valuable service.
