A new report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) predicts Asia could grow its share of installed capacity for onshore wind from 230 gigawatt (GW) in 2018 to over 2600GW by 2050.
By that time, the region would become a global leader in wind, accounting for more than 50 per cent of all onshore and over 60 per cent of all offshore wind capacity installed globally.
According to the new report Future of Wind published at China Wind Power 2019 being held in Beijing, global wind generational capacity could rise ten-fold reaching over 6000GW by 2050.
By mid-century, wind could cover one-third of global power needs and when combined with electrification, deliver a quarter of the energy-related carbon emission reductions needed to meet the United Nations sponsored Paris Agreement climate targets.
To reach this objective, onshore and offshore wind capacity will need to increase four-fold and ten-fold respectively every year compared to now.
“With renewables, it’s possible to achieve a climate-safe future,” said IRENA’s Director-General Francesco La Camera.
Low-cost renewable energy technologies like wind power are readily available today, representing the most effective and immediate solution for reducing carbon emissions.
“Our roadmap for a global energy transformation to 2050 shows that it is technically and economically feasible to ensure a climate-safe, sustainable energy future.
“Unlocking global wind energy potential will be particularly important.
“In fact, wind energy could be the largest single source of power generation by mid-century under this path.
“This would not only enable us to meet climate goals, but it would also boost economic growth and create jobs, thereby accelerating sustainable development,” Mr La Camera said.
The report further adds that to accelerate the growth of global wind power over the coming decades, scaling up investments will be key.
On average, global annual investment in onshore wind must increase from US$67 billion in 2018 to US$211 billion in 2050.
For offshore wind, global average annual investments would need to increase from US$19 billion to US$100 billion in 2050.
Specifically, the paper highlights the growth needed in wind power to achieve Paris Agreement climate goals.
It also offers insights on cost-reduction opportunities, technology trends and the need to prepare electricity grids for rising shares of wind power.
Among the findings:
- Accelerated wind power deployment, coupled with increased electrification, could deliver one-quarter (or nearly 6.3 gigatonnes) of the annual CO? emission reductions needed by 2050.
- Wind power could cover more than one-third of global power needs (35 per cent), becoming the world’s foremost generation source.
- To fulfil this aim, the world’s installed wind power capacity must reach 6 000 gigawatts – over 10 times the current level – by 2050. This would include 5000GW of onshore wind and 1000GW of offshore wind.
- Asia is poised to become the world’s dominant wind market, accounting for more than 50 per cent of onshore and 60 per cent of offshore wind installations by 2050. Asia’s onshore wind capacity could grow from 230GW in 2018 to over 2600GW by 2050.
- Increasing economies of scale, more competitive supply chains and further technological improvements should reduce electricity costs from onshore wind to less than three cents (US$0.03) per kilowatt hour by 2050, IRENA’s analysis shows. Prices from offshore wind are expected to fall below seven cents, also towards the lower end of cost range for power generation based on fossil fuels.
- To fulfil climate goals and help to contain the rise of global temperatures, annual investment in onshore wind needs to triple from US$67 billion in 2018 to US$211 billion globally in 2050. Annual investment in offshore wind would have to more than quintuple, from US$19 billion in 2018 to US$100 billion in 2050.
- The resulting transformation could bring socio-economic benefits. The global wind industry drives the creation of new jobs and could employ over six million people worldwide by 2050, compared to about one million currently.
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