A new London School of Economics report shows the current package of national greenhouse gas (GHG) action plans is still insufficient to tackle climate change.
The new analysis has warned today that greenhouse gas pledges countries have submitted in a bid to deliver a new climate change treaty will not be enough to stop average global temperatures passing the international target of two degrees Celsius of warming.
A paper published by researchers at the London School of Economics Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change found the pledges made by countries ahead of the United Nations sponsored Paris Summit through the UN’s system of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) would reduce emissions by about 10 billion tonnes by 2030 compared with a business-as-usual scenario.
The British environmental news website BusinessGreen reports the paper analysed pledges from 46 countries and found they would lead to annual global emissions of 56.9 billion to 59.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2030.
The UN estimates that no more than 36 billion tonnes of emissions can be released into the atmosphere in 2030 if the world is to have a 50 per cent chance of meeting the two-degree target.
The target does rise to 42 billion tonnes in a scenario where “negative emissions” technologies such as bio-energy with carbon capture and storage is deployed later in the century.
BusinessGreen reports that consequently, the LSE team calculates that delivering on the targets set out to date would still result in a breach of the emissions budget for standing a reasonable chance of limiting temperature increases to 2.0ºC, a budget which has been previously agreed by governments.
The 46 countries in the study include the United States, Japan, the European Union and China, and account for 58 per cent of the world’s emissions.
However, the analysis used a cut-off date of July 20, so does not include the emissions pledges made by 10 countries since then, such as Australia and Kenya.
It is unlikely that Australia’s modest target of 26 per cent would make a great deal of difference and the Australian contribution has been described by some as “pathetic” given the countries substantial contribution to GHG.
A spokesman for LSE admitted this was a limitation of the study, but did not change the message that current pledges still fall well short of what is required to meet the 2.0ºC target.
BusinessGreen reports experts have long predicted that even when every country has submitted their INDC, the combined pledges are unlikely to be compatible with the 2.0ºC target.
As a result, growing numbers of governments are calling for any treaty agreed in Paris to include a review mechanism that would allow countries to ratchet up their emission reduction pledges as new clean technologies emerge.
The Democratic Republic of Congo has become the latest country to submit its INDC, announcing a 17 per cent reduction target compared with a business-as-usual scenario by 2030.
However, this was conditional on it receiving an estimated US$12.54bn of support from the international community.
“The mismatch between the ambitions embodied by the INDCs and the overall objective of having a reasonable chance of avoiding global warming of more than 2.0ºC means that parties to the UNFCCC should undertake additional action,” the LSE paper states.
It recommends the UN urgently focus on identifying “credible ways” of achieving bigger emissions reductions which can be included in INDCs, and an intensification of efforts to increase investment and innovation in low-carbon technologies.
