At the same time as scientists issued a strongly worded appeal to political leaders to cut carbon emissions a new energy market analysis by leading energy consultants RepuTex predicts Australia will hit 50 per cent renewable electricity by 2030.
The predictions come despite the lack of a federal government energy policy.
However, the analysis also warns a slump in new investment in wind and solar investment could threaten a continued decline in wholesale electricity prices.
RepuTex said the current drive to 50 per cent renewable energy by 2030 was being driven by state renewable energy targets and rooftop solar schemes that were predicted to make higher cost gas and coal-fired power less competitive.
It said that transition was expected to deliver a decline in wholesale prices in the national energy market from around $80 a megawatt-hour (/MWh) in 2020 toward $70/MWh over the next three years, which translates as a fall of 15 per cent from today’s levels.
However, it warned investment in renewable energy plunged by 50 per cent last year compared with the year before, and it predicted that decline would continue, a development that will put upward pressure on wholesale electricity prices, particularly as major coal-fired facilities begin to close.
“In the absence of an effective policy framework to guide new investment, the decline of our ageing generation fleet will lead to higher electricity prices before the new supply is developed, hurting both businesses and consumers,” the assessment said.
In an effort to emphasise a positive message on the issue, the Treasurer in Australia’s conservative Liberal-National government, Josh Frydenberg, told ABCTV’s Insider program the Liberal-National government’s 2030 emissions reduction target of 26 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030 was a floor and not a cap, “and we hope to beat our target”.
However, while declaring the government wanted to beat the 2030 target, Mr Frydenberg said the target was not going to be adjusted.
“We took to the Australian people a very clear target, so we’re not about to lift that target,” the treasurer said.
“What we are endeavouring to do is to meet our commitments now.”
Mr Frydenberg did not mention that the government intends to use an accounting measure, carryover credits from the Kyoto Protocol period, to meet the 2030 target, with carryover credits, not practical abatement, supplying about half the pollution reduction load to 2030.
The Treasurer also played up the government’s commitment to renewable energy.
Mr Frydenberg said that more than $7 billion was invested in renewables last year.
He omitted the Liberal-National government’s efforts under previous Prime Minister Tony Abbott to virtually destroy the Renewable Energy Target (RET), and the fact the RET winds down from this year, with policy uncertainty triggering the decline in new investment captured in the RepuTex analysis.
Asked whether he believed there was now a climate emergency, the Treasurer hedged.
“Climate change is a significant challenge, a global challenge that needs a global solution,” he said.
“We’re doing our bit and we’re also working on the international stage.”
Pressed to explain how climate change was not an emergency, Mr Frydenberg said; “it’s an important issue, but as the Prime Minister (Scott Morrison) has outlined, there are a lot of things that we can do with mitigation and adaptation to try to reduce the impact of climate change on the Australian community”.
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