According to a new study solar and wind energy are less expensive in providing electricity to American households than three-quarters of United States coal generation.
“Even without major policy shift we will continue to see coal retire pretty rapidly,” said Mike O’Boyle, the co-author of the report for Energy Innovation, a renewables analysis firm.
“Our analysis shows that we can move a lot faster to replace coal with wind and solar.
“The fact that so much coal could be retired right now shows we are off the pace.”
The study’s authors used public financial filings and data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA) to work out the cost of energy from coal plants compared with wind and solar options within a 35-mile radius.
They found that 211 gigawatt (GW) of current US coal capacity, 74 per cent of the coal fleet, is providing electricity that’s more expensive than wind or solar.
By 2025 the picture becomes even clearer, with nearly the entire US coal system out-competed on cost by wind and solar, even when factoring in the construction of new wind turbines and solar panels.
“We’ve seen we are at the ‘coal crossover’ point in many parts of the country but this is actually more widespread than previously thought,” Mr O’Boyle said.
“There is a huge potential for wind and solar to replace coal, while saving people money.”
Coal plants have suffered due to rising maintenance costs, including requirements to install pollution controls.
Meanwhile, the cost of solar and wind has plummeted as the technology has improved.
Cheap and abundant natural gas, as well as the growth of renewable energy, has hit coal demand, with the EIA reporting in January that half of all US coalmines have shut down over the past decade.
“Coal is on its way out,” said Curtis Morgan, the chief executive of Vistra Energy, a major Texas-based coal plant owner.
Data released last week highlighted the rise of renewable energy, with electricity generation from clean sources doubling since 2008.
The bulk of renewable energy comes from hydro and wind, with solar playing a more minor, albeit growing, role.
Renewable energy now accounts for around 17 per cent of US electricity generation, with coal’s share declining.
However, the power of coal’s incumbency, bolstered by the sympathetic administration of President Donald Trump, means it is not on track to be eliminated in the US as it is in the United Kingdom and Germany.
Meanwhile, according to the Coal Outlook 2019 just released by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) the long-term structural decline of the US coal industry continued in 2018, with a record total of coal generation capacity retired and a further drop in utility coal consumption to levels not seen since the early 1980s.
Based on data from EIA and other sources, IEEFA sees the sector’s performance in 2018 as a continuation of the downward trend that has plagued the sector in recent years.
This year, the outlook is worse, with the latest forecast from EIA) projecting that coal’s share of the electric generation sector will drop below 25 per cent, the lowest level since 1949.
At the same time fossil fuels continue to receive staunch institutional support, too.
A recent report released by a coalition of environmental groups found that 33 global banks have provided US$1.9tn in finance to coal, oil and gas companies since the 2015 United Nations sponsored Paris Agreement on climate change.
In sobering figures released last week, the EIA predicted that US carbon dioxide emissions from energy would remain similar to current levels until 2050, with coal consumption dropping but then levelling off beyond 2020.
Such a scenario, disputed by other experts who argue the transition to renewable energy will be more rapid, would be compatible with disastrous climate change, causing vast areas of the US coastline to be inundated, the spread of deadly heatwaves, growth of destructive wildfires and food and water insecurity.
“It would be better if we had a federal cohesive policy because not all states will take the initiative,” said Mr O’Boyle.
“In order to get an affordable, clean energy system we need both federal and state actors involved.”
