Australia’s conservative Liberal-National federal government has released new data that suggests it is on track to meet the emissions reduction target it set at the 2015 United Nations sponsored Paris climate conference, but only by including a loophole under the Kyoto Protocol.
The emissions projections report suggests Australia will better its 2030 emissions target, a 26 to 28 per cent cut below 2005 levels, by 16 million tonnes of carbon dioxide.
Emissions are expected to be about 16 per cent lower than 2005 by 2030 but the government plans to use controversial “carryover credits” from the Kyoto Protocol.
Guardian Australia reports carryover credits are an accounting measure that allows countries to count emissions cuts from exceeding previous targets against future targets.
They were allowed under the soon-to-be-obsolete Kyoto Protocol, but are not mentioned in the current Paris Agreement.
Australia is the only country planning to use them under the Paris Agreement.
Guardian Australia reports the plan to use them has been strongly criticised by the European Union and Pacific leaders.
They say Australia accrued the credits after setting unambitious targets under the Kyoto Protocol, including allowing emissions to increase by up to eight per cent between 1990 and 2012.
The Paris Agreement says countries will make national commitments that are more ambitious through time and reflect the “highest possible ambition”.
The emissions projections data has been released as Angus Taylor, the embattled Energy and Emissions Reduction minister, flies to Madrid for the second week of a United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP25).
Mr Taylor said the improvement from the 2018 projections was primarily a result of the government’s $3.5 billion Climate Solutions Package and emissions cuts in the electricity sector.
The report suggests Australia will exceed its 2020 target by 411 million tonnes, up from the previous estimate of 367m tonnes.
“Our commitment is achievable, balanced and responsible, and is part of coordinated global action to deliver a healthy environment for future generations while keeping our economy strong,” Mr Taylor said in a statement.
The Australian government’s new forecasts, point to a downward revision in national emissions to 2030 that show, for the first time, Australia’s cumulative emissions will be 16 million tonnes lower than the target set under the Paris agreement.
The federal energy department attributes this to the growing contribution of large-scale renewable energy projects in the electricity sector and higher take-up of rooftop solar panels compared to previous estimates, and the government’s Climate Solutions Package.
Australia’s emissions would need to fall a cumulative 695 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-e) between now and 2030 to satisfy Australia’s Paris Agreement commitment and about 365 million tonnes equivalent would come from the carryover credits.
However, Australian National University Climate Change Institute Professor Mark Howden said despite a small decrease of 0.75 per cent in the total emissions over the past 12 months, when using the unadjusted seasonal data, the government’s own report showed the emissions trend was still going up.
“On a trend basis, emissions were more than 0.13 per cent higher compared with the previous year.
“This is because the trend data allows somewhat for the effects of the current drought and recent floods, which have driven livestock numbers down by more than seven per cent with corresponding reductions in emissions,” Professor Howden said.
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