According to new research from Green Energy Markets (GEM) renewable energy will provide one third of Australia’s national electricity market’s needs within two years.
The consultancy firm’s forecast uses the latest data from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and is based on solar and wind farms already under construction or contracted plus rooftop solar maintaining stable installation levels.
“This represents almost a doubling in renewable energy’s share compared to 2015 when it met 17.3 per cent of annual electricity consumption,” GEM director Tristan Edis said.
Mr Edis said the National Energy Guarantee (NEG) was unlikely to make any difference to power station investment or emissions unless the emission target was strengthened.
“Even if contracting and construction commitments to solar farms and wind farms halted from today, ongoing installations of rooftop solar should see renewable energy share reaching 39 per cent by 2030,” he said.
However, ABC News reports senior National Party politicians have drafted a discussion paper for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull proposing that the conservative Liberal-National government provide incentives for businesses to invest in refurbishing existing base load power stations.
This approach was discussed at a party meeting earlier this week and could see the life of some existing coal-fired power stations extended.
National Party backbencher, and former Deputy Prime Minister, Barnaby Joyce warned rural voters may not support the NEG because they struggle to pay their power bills.
“We are not having people in the middle of winter being kicked back into the 20th century, back into the 19th century because they’re going to have to go back to wood stoves,” Mr Joyce said.
“I was with people on the weekend and that’s precisely what’s happening.”
GEM’s forecast comes on top of another record month for small-scale rooftop photovoltaic (PV) installation.
Almost 19,000 rooftop PV systems were installed across Australia in May.
Mr Edis said new units in May alone would add up to bill savings of about $233 million over 10 years.
The 131 megawatts (MW) of rooftop solar PV registered in May was also new monthly record.
Mr Edis said his belief that solar PV sales would tail off next year was in danger of being badly wrong.
“It will be interesting to see what happens once the drop in wholesale electricity prices starts flowing through to end consumers, he said.
“Although because solar module prices now look set to plummet in the second half of the year it might just overwhelm the effect of declining electricity prices.”
Renewable energy accounted for 19.9 per cent of the electricity generated in Australia’s main grids in May.
On GEM figures, renewable energy avoided 2.4 million tonnes of CO2 pollution over the month, or the equivalent of taking 9.2 million cars off the road.
The NEG is designed to be a “technology-neutral” scheme that imposes a requirement on electricity retailers to reduce carbon emissions while guaranteeing reliability.
Mr Edis said his forecast for renewable energy accounting for about 40 per cent of generation by 2030 substantially exceeded the emission reduction ambition within the NEG.
Modelling for the Energy Security Board estimated the emission target would be achieved with 36 per cent renewable energy share.
“Since the political uncertainty over the Renewable Energy Target (RET) was resolved, project developers have been incredibly busy identifying and gaining development approval for new wind and solar farms around the country,” Mr Edis said.
The government needs all states to agree to its final energy plan, before any legislation is put to a vote in parliament.
