New modelling released by lobby group Environment Victoria shows Victoria would need approximately 10 new wind farms and a major increase in large-scale batteries to offset an early closure of the Yallourn coal-fired power station and contain household power bills.
The Latrobe Valley power station currently supplies about 20 per cent of Victoria’s electricity needs.
Its owner EnergyAustralia has said it expects to begin phasing out its four units from 2029 before shutting down completely in 2032.
However, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has now reported it was preparing for Yallourn to close as soon as 2026-27.
The plant has proven extremely unreliable with 33 breakdowns in 18 months and many experts have suggested its closure could be sooner.
The new modelling from energy analysts RepuTex has found Victoria could withstand the closure as early as 2023 but that would require a significant expansion of storage and renewables, aided by fast-tracked electricity transmission lines connecting Victoria with other states.
The analysis, commissioned by Environment Victoria, comes amid concerns of blackouts this summer as the state’s ageing coal-fired plants struggle to keep up when demand soars in high temperatures and extended heatwaves.
The environment group asked RepuTex to assess Victoria’s energy needs if Yallourn shut down in 2023 with a three-year notice period.
EnergyAustralia has previously warned that household electricity prices could be pushed to record highs and energy shortfalls created if Yallourn’s shutdown is poorly planned.
RepuTex research director Bret Harper said Victoria was growing its number of wind farms but there was a clear need for much more battery storage.
“It’s really adding a little bit more storage to help maximum demand situations,” he said.
The study found that fast-tracking the KerangLink transmission line, which will allow more power to flow between Victoria and New South Wales, would help to shore up Victoria’s energy supplies.
It said the early retirement of Yallourn would lead to a massive reduction in carbon emissions.
The state would need an additional 2.6 gigawatts (GW) of wind power, which Environment Victoria said was roughly equivalent to 10 wind farms, in addition to projects already committed for the summer of 2023-24.
Offsetting the early closure of Yallourn would also require:
- Continuation of rooftop solar rollout at about 6000 installations a month.
- A more than 10-fold expansion of large-scale battery storage from about 55 megawatts (MW) today to almost 600MW.
Allowing retailers to call on residential battery reserves in times of peak demand.
The research factored in many renewable energy projects already in development or that had been publicly announced.
Last year, Victoria’s state Labor government granted EnergyAustralia a licence extension for its mine but required a minimum five-year notification period before closing the Yallourn power station.
However, Environment Victoria campaigns manager Dr Nick Aberle said Yallourn had broken down 33 times in 18 months.
“Almost everyone accepts it will close before the announced 2032 timeframe. The question is how soon and how well we prepare for it,” he said.
Dr Aberle said the Victorian government needed to start building replacement supply now for Yallourn’s “inevitable closure”.
“From an energy perspective, there is now a plausible combination of solutions that enable Yallourn to close by 2023 in a way that has minimal impact on the grid and on power prices.”
EnergyAustralia cited previous published media comments from earlier this year in regard to the future of Yallourn.
“Our plans are to run the plant to 2032 or for as long as policy and regulation permit and there’s not a substantial change in the market,” he said.
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