Analysis commissioned for the REC Agents Association (RAA) warns that up to 6750 jobs could be lost or foregone if the Renewable Energy Target is abolished.
Australia’s conservative Liberal-National government is currently reviewing the future of the Renewable Energy Target (RET), which requires that 20 per cent of Australia’s electricity comes from renewable sources by 2020.
Under current projections, wind, solar, hydro and other renewable sources will supply more than 20 per cent, mostly because power demand has declined in recent years as consumers become more careful in their energy usage and manufacturing in Australia has shrunk.
The Prime Minister Tony Abbott and other coalition government figures have recently been critical of renewable energy, claiming that it has forced up power prices.
With no policy change, 8000 jobs will be generated between 2014-18, assuming the floating carbon price remains, something Mr Abbott’s government is trying to repeal, electricity prices continue to fall and solar PV prices continue to decline, the report said.
“If the Renewable Energy Target is axed, 2000 jobs could be lost straight away and thousands of new jobs would not be created”, said Fiona O’Hehir, vice-president of RAA, the industry body for companies trading in renewable energy certificates.
Ms O’Hehir is also CEO of Greenbank Environmental, which commissioned the analysis.
“Axing the RET is on the government’s agenda and they need to understand this would have a diabolical impact on jobs, industry and the hundreds of thousands of Australians who want to put solar on their homes”.
RAA president Ric Brazzale, the CEO of Green Energy Trading, said the solar industry last year employed some 17,000 Australians, across 4300 small and medium sized businesses.
“Solar workers can be found right across the country, from the outer suburbs of our big cities to rural and regional communities,” he said.
The detailed analysis by industry experts SolarBusinessServices outlines the future of the solar PV industry, projected to 2018, under three scenarios:
• No policy change – business as usual, floating carbon price, slightly higher exchange rate and lower PV prices;
• Cut to the RET – RET adjusted downwards, cuts to residential solar program (SRES) and carbon price abolished; and
• Renewable Energy Target abolished.
“Cutting the Renewable Energy Target would also have severe consequences”, said Ms O’Hehir.
“Six hundred jobs could be lost next year with a cut to the RET.”
She said that by 2015, the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) would cost just $6.50 out of an average $500 a quarter household power bill.
Ms O’Hehir added the cost was sharply reduced by the parallel reduction in the wholesale cost of electricity delivered by solar.
“The real cost of the SRES to households is just $1.90 per quarter, or just 0.38 per cent of a typical household quarterly bill.
“For almost five million Australians, solar is substantially reducing their power bills,” she said.
The SolarBusinessServices analysis uses a number of variables to assess their potential impact on the solar market.
Changes to the RET have the single largest impact on market uptake, particularly if abolished completely and early.
Meanwhile, solar jobs in the United States climbed nearly 20 per cent in the 14 months through to November, according to nonprofit research group Solar Foundation.
The National Solar Jobs Census 2013 found solar companies employed almost 143,000 workers, up nearly 24,000 from September 2012.
They are expecting to add 22,000 new positions this year.
