According to first ever research from the University College London two-thirds of the world’s fossil-fuel reserves must remain unburnt to hold temperature increases below dangerous levels.
That means vast amounts of oil in the Middle East, coal in the United States, Australia and China and many other fossil fuel reserves should never be mined.
Bloomberg newsagency reports half the world’s known gas reserves, one-third of the oil and 80 per cent of the coal should remain in the ground.
According to the report from the UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources the resources must remain unused before 2050 if the world is to limit temperature increases to two degrees Celsius, the maximum climate scientists say is advisable.
“Policy makers must realise that their instincts to completely use the fossil fuels within their countries are wholly incompatible with their commitments to the 2 degrees Celsius goal,” UCL research associate and lead author Dr Christophe McGlade said in the report, which will be published today in the scientific journal Nature.
Bloomberg reports the research will heighten the debate about so-called stranded assets, the idea that the reserves of oil drillers and coal miners have little value because the fight against climate change will require them to be left in the ground.
While disputed by energy companies, the issue has been gaining greater prominence in recent months.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said last year he had instructed staff to consider whether stranded assets posed a threat to banks, investors and the financial system.
The UCL report, funded by the United Kingdom Energy Research Centre, said that the “overwhelming majority” of coal reserves in China, Russia, Australia and the US must remain unburnt, along with 260 billion barrels of Middle East oil and 60 per cent of its gas reserves.
Bloomberg reports governments are adopting policies to cut carbon dioxide emissions and meet the two degrees Celsius target agreed in Copenhagen six years ago.
The International Energy Agency estimates that based on current trends the world may warm 3.6 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, raising the risk of more violent storms, droughts and rising sea levels.
The United Nations said in November that the world must halt fossil-fuel emissions within the next six decades to prevent irreversible impacts from a warming planet.
The UN estimates that to stand a 50 per cent chance of holding global warming to 2.0°C, emissions since the late 19th century need to be limited to 3000 gigatons (Gt) of carbon dioxide, with 63 per cent of that already released by 2011.
That means there’s 1100Gt left, or at best 30 per cent of the 3700Gt to 7100Gt of carbon dioxide (CO2) contained in known fossil fuel reserves that are economically recoverable, according to the UN.
Bloomberg reports the world’s biggest producers of coal, oil and gas reject the concept of stranded assets, saying fossil fuels are needed to provide affordable energy.
Exxon Mobil Corporation said in March 2014 that its natural-gas reserves would not become stranded as global demand grows and the drive for higher living standards in developing nations trumps efforts to curtail carbon emissions.
Glencore, the world’s biggest coal exporter, said in its sustainability report that fossil fuels will be a vital element of the world’s energy sources for some time to come.
