As they feel the impact of more severe heatwaves, droughts and floods the future is looking grim for some species of Australian eucalyptus trees.
Researchers from the University of Queensland looked at such effects on more than 100 eucalypt species, finding that some may be wiped out from increasingly extreme weather conditions.
ABC News reports the UQ study was modelled on two temperature scenarios.
The first scenario was for an increase of one degree Celsius by 2055 and an increase of just over two degrees Celsius by 2085.
The second, more extreme scenario saw an increase of 1.5°C and 2.5°C in those years respectively.
Professor Clive McAlpine from the UQ says that currently, temperatures are tracking at the extreme end of the range, and without mitigation they will continue to do so.
“We’re basically locked into a warming of 3.5 to four degrees globally by the end of the century unless we can have some very aggressive mitigation to reduce greenhouse gas,” Professor McAlpine told ABC News.
The study found that drought appears to be the biggest threat to gum trees, out of all the weather conditions it considered.
“They can’t cope with moisture stress and when you combine heat stress and drought, that is when eucalypts start to die or their canopy deteriorates,” Professor McAlpine said.
The fact that eucalyptus trees have long regeneration times, in combination with the short dispersal distances of their seeds, indicates that they may not be able to keep up with the pace of climate change, he said.
The research shows that gum trees have moved from central regions of the country toward the east and south coast, and that migration to more moderate conditions could also have a negative effect on native wildlife.
Professor McAlpine said this was especially the case in interior regions of the continent.
“Because those trees provide nectar, they provide resources for wildlife so that those animals that depend on them will not have those resources,” he said.
He also said the local species of eucalypts were the most vulnerable to extinction.
