A new study has shown that total greenhouse gas emissions by China and other emerging nations since 1850 will surpass those of rich nations this decade.
The announcement is likely to complicate future United Nations talks about who is most to blame for global warming.
Reuters Newsagency reports that according to the study developing nations accounted for 48 per cent of cumulative emissions from 1850 to 2010.
The study was carried out by the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, research group Ecofys and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre.
“Somewhere in the current decade the share of the cumulative historical emissions of developing countries will surpass that of developed countries,” a statement by the group said.
Reuters reports developing nations’ emissions are rising fast and the report predicted that their share of cumulative emissions would reach 51 per cent by 2020.
Almost 200 governments will meet in Warsaw, Poland, from November 11-22 to discuss plans for a new, global deal to fight climate change.
The agreement was meant to be developed in 2010 but has been put off until 2015 and will now come into force from 2020.
“Discussions at the UN climate negotiations tend to focus on which countries have contributed most to climate change,” the study said.
The biggest emitters since 1850, the start of the Industrial Revolution is taken as the start of widespread industrial use of fossil fuels that emit greenhouse gases when burnt, were the United States, China, the European Union and Russia, it said.
Reuters reports China, with 1.3 billion inhabitants, argues that its per capita emissions since 1850 are still far below those of developed nations, meaning it has less responsibility to rein in emissions than rich nations.
Separately, the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency said there is evidence that global emissions of carbon dioxide may be slowing
The researchers said that world emissions of carbon dioxide rose by just 1.1 per cent in 2012 to a record 34.5 billion tonnes, a slowdown from annual gains averaging 2.9 per cent since 2000.
The Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre produce the report annually.
“This is remarkable, as the global economy grew by 3.5 per cent,” it said in a statement.
“This development signals a shift towards less fossil-fuel-intensive activities, more use of renewable energy and increased energy saving.”
The figures were similar to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in June, which said that worldwide carbon dioxide emissions rose by 1.4 per cent in 2012, with gains by China offsetting falls in the United States and Europe.
