The maths behind conservation: How data-driven models are protecting our ecosystems

QUT School of Mathmatical Sciences Associate Professor Dr Kate Helmstedt pictured in the Botanical Gardens. Dr Helmstedt’s research expertise is in using operations research to guide smart decision making for natural resource and environmental management with the ultimate goal of guiding future management decisions towards cost-efficiency, transparency and defensibility.

By Dr Kate Helmstedt

When it comes to mathematics, we often think about complicated formulas and algebra that seem far removed from any real-world applications. But for environmental mathematician and QUT associate professor, Kate Helmstedt, maths is the single tool she is using to tackle some of the most urgent environmental crises on our planet.

From the icy expanses of Antarctica to the delicate coral in the Great Barrier Reef, Helmstedt’s expertise lies in leveraging data, models, and AI-driven analysis to understand and mitigate environmental risks in ecosystems.

“As much as we’d like to rely on direct observations, there’s simply too much happening in ecological systems for us to make accurate readings based on that alone,” she says. “What we really need is maths to help us understand these complex systems.”

“Mathematical modelling helps us make sense of vast amounts of data,” Helmstedt adds. “It allows us to identify patterns, predict future outcomes, and make informed decisions based on that analysis. Essentially, these models turn overwhelming environmental information into actionable insights.”

One area where Helmstedt’s work has proven transformative is in helping conservationists better understand the impacts of climate change on Antarctic ecosystems. By applying mathematical models to biodiversity data, she’s identifying critical gaps in knowledge, establishing protected areas, managing invasive species, and regulating tourism.

“Using, mathematical models, we can pinpoint areas that are most vulnerable to climate change in remote places like Antarctica,” Helmstedt explains. “This ensures that conservation resources are directed to regions where they’ll have the most significant impact, particularly in preserving the biodiversity at risk.”

Managing Antarctica’s fragile ecosystems requires advanced mathematical approaches to account for uncertainties and the interconnections between conservation strategies. Helmstedt’s team takes a diversified approach, reducing risk and ensuring long-term sustainability.

“These models help us understand how changes to the environment – like temperature shifts, ice cover changes, and invasive species – affect wildlife health and habitat availability,” she says. “By leveraging data-driven insights, we can prioritise efforts to protect at-risk species and maintain ecological balance.”

Closer to home, Helmstedt applies the same data-driven approach to marine environments, including the Great Barrier Reef. With rising ocean temperatures, human impacts, and poor water quality threatening coral reefs, effective conservation requires careful planning over large spatial scales and long timeframes.

Helmstedt and her team are building new optimisation methods that draw from resource allocation strategies used in other high-risk scenarios. These techniques help them handle uncertainties and the connections between different management options, ensuring the Great Barrier Reef’s long-term sustainability in the face of climate change. By using a mix of strategies, they reduce risk and improve outcomes in an uncertain environmental future.

“We can use mathematics to test different conservation strategies before they’re implemented.” Helmstedt explains. “Risks and costs might be too high to perform large-scale experiments in these critical ecosystems. Instead, we can run thousands of experiments on our modelled system to understand how the coral and animals will respond to different management.

Through these models, Helmstedt and her team are also able to monitor the effects of crucial events like coral bleaching and outbreaks of the threatening, coral-eating Crown of Thorns Starfish. “We can intervene faster and more effectively by applying maths to track and respond to these changes,” she explains.

This approach not only accelerates the response time to environmental threats but also supports the long-term sustainability of ecosystems worldwide.

“The beauty of maths is that it allows us to answer critical questions about conservation and sustainability,” Helmstedt adds. “We can use maths to map out the possible ways ecosystems will respond to climate change over the next 50 years, depending on the current state of the environment. This allows us to determine which areas are more critical to protect and identify the most effective strategies for balancing environmental preservation with economic needs.”

By combining the power of data with a strategic understanding of environmental systems, Helmstedt is helping shape smarter, data-driven solutions to some of the world’s most pressing ecological challenges.

“We don’t have the luxury of trial and error when it comes to saving ecosystems,” she says. “Mathematics can give us the ability to plan ahead, reduce uncertainty, and take meaningful action before it’s too late.”

If you’re interested in finding out more information about a career in mathematical ecology, visit https://www.qut.edu.au/study/undergraduate/mathematics-and-data-science.

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