The United Nations climate chief has expressed confidence that political will is growing to cut global carbon emissions, but has warned of tough challenges ahead in 2014.
A draft text for a global climate change treaty set to be agreed in 2015 will be presented to governments as early as November this year, according to the UN official in charge of negotiations.
Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) expects work on what is guaranteed to be a controversial deal to start in little over 12 weeks time.
She said this would give diplomats seven months to flesh out proposals before the main climate summit of 2014 opens in Lima, Peru on December 1.
“In March we will have a session of the Durban Platform [2015 deal talks] that will begin to look at what is the content of the agreement of 2015 going to be, and will be preparation for the draft agreement that will be out on the table as governments go to Lima, so not as a result of Lima but as they go to Lima,” she told environmental news website RTCC in an interview.
RTCC reports pressure is mounting for a process that is designed to avert dangerous levels of global warming, but has so far not managed to deliver anything close to the level of greenhouse gas emission cuts needed to do that.
A UN climate science report released last September warned of rising sea levels, melting polar ice caps and increases in extreme weather events if urgent action is not taken within the next decade.
Major polluters such as the United States and China has indicated they will take action, but it’s still unclear if world leaders have the political will to accept tough emission cuts.
Ms Figueres said the scientific evidence suggested they have little choice.
“Not coming to an agreement is unacceptable, there’s just no way,” she said.
“We don’t have the option of not coming to an agreement, and frankly we don’t have an option of not coming to an agreement that is meaningful.”
The litmus test for how well negotiations are faring will take place this September in New York, where UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is set to host national, business and civil society leaders for a ‘Climate Summit’ ahead of the 2014 General Assembly.
Mr Ban recently appointed John Kufuor, former President of Ghana, and Jens Stoltenberg, former Prime Minister of Norway as his climate envoys ahead of Christmas, and called for the gathering to be filled with “bold announcements and action.”
Those countries that can are already being asked to consider revealing their emission reduction and financial pledges for the 2015 treaty ahead of Ban’s meeting. Ban’s team are also asking businesses and civil society what they can offer in terms of assistance or commitments.
Ms Figueres stressed the meeting would not be a formal part of the UNFCCC negotiations, but said Mr Ban’s ability to coax “political delivery” out of leaders will be important, and hopes those attending will feel able to “offer solutions”.
“2014 is critical, we expect countries to be doing their homework,” she said.
“That’s the domestic analysis that each country needs to do to determine what is the highest contribution they can make to the global effort that they will make public through 2014, and some in 2015.”
Funding for low carbon growth remains a concern.
The Green Climate Fund, which is set to open its doors to investors in May 2014, will have a role in changing that situation.
So will private sector investors, who Ms Figueres sees as a valued ally.
“It is these asset managers and asset owners that can truly make a difference in where substantial capital is going to flow over the next 10-20 years”, she said.
Ms Figueres added that the “business continuity implications of climate are becoming clearer the risks of stranded assets and low return are becoming more evident.”
Illustrating the UN’s commitment to engaging with business, Ms Figueres points to an investor’s summit with 500 global financial leaders in New York she will attend on January 15.
The World Economic Forum in Davos will follow this at the end of the month, where a full day is being dedicated to climate change.
Ambition appears to be stirring among some world leaders with the US and China announcing new climate strategies in the past year.
Europe is expected to release its 2030 climate targets at the end of January.
Australian climate groups hope conservative Liberal-National prime minister Tony Abbott may yet look at the thermometer and adopt tougher climate policies.
For her part Ms Figueres said she was keen to push the issue “beyond institutions” like governments, the OECD, IMF, World Bank and the UNFCCC.
“Every single one of us needs to be part of that team. None of us are exempted from responsibility, all of us can contribute,” she said.
“This needs to be a movement forward that is constructed by everybody, not just by institutions, not just be government, not just by corporations. The team is a seven billion man and woman team,” Ms Figueres added.
