A new United Nations assessment has warned the world is in serious danger of failing on its UN sponsored Paris Agreement climate goals unless urgent action is taken to slash global greenhouse gases.
The UN experts have called for cuts of at least 7.6 per cent every year over the next decade, and say countries need to “act now” to address the escalating crisis.
The stark warn has come in the latest annual analysis released ahead of the start of next week’s COP25 Climate Summit in Madrid, by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).
It said that even if all countries’ current pledges to cut emissions under the Paris Agreement were implemented, it would still see average temperatures rise by 3.2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, with catastrophic consequences for the planet.
The findings lay bare the gaping hole between countries’ individual and collective ambition on cutting emissions and the level of emissions reductions required to limit global warming to 1.5°C or even 2.0°C, the higher and lower ambition goals set out in the Paris Agreement.
UNEP said collective ambition from nations to reduce their emissions must increase more than five-fold above current levels in order to close that gap and deliver the CO2 cuts needed between now and 2030 for limiting temperature rises to 1.5°C.
The sobering assessment comes just before global leaders meet in Madrid for the next round of Paris Agreement talks at COP25.
The UNEP report will put further pressure on countries to step up their commitments, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the UN jargon, both at next month’s Summit and over the coming year.
Inger Andersen, UNEP’s executive director, said the world’s “collective failure to act early and hard on climate change” meant there was now a steeper challenge ahead and deeper cuts to emissions would be required before 2030.
“This shows that countries simply cannot wait until the end of 2020, when new climate commitments are due, to step up action,” she said.
“They, and every city, region, business and individual, need to act now.”
Greenhouse gas emissions have risen 1.5 per cent each year on average over the last decade, hitting a record high of 55.3 gigatonnes of CO2 in 2018.
G20 nations collectively account for 78 per cent of these emissions, UNEP said, but only five G20 members have to date committed to a long-term zero emissions target, led by the United Kingdom.
In the short term therefore, UNEP said more developed economies would have to reduce their emissions at a much faster pace than developing countries “for reasons of fairness and equity”, highlighting the disparity in responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions.
However, it stressed that all nations now needed to substantially improve their national emissions reduction pledges, and then before the end of next year follow up with policies and strategies to help meet their goals.
With strong policy commitments, Ms Andersen said climate change could still be limited to 1.5°C, as there was increasing understanding of the additional economic and health benefits of building a low carbon economy, and both the solutions and public pressure to implement them were now “abundant”.
However, she warned: “We need quick wins to reduce emissions as much as possible in 2020, then stronger NDCs to kick-start the major transformations of economies and societies.
“We need to catch up on the years in which we procrastinated. If we don’t do this, the 1.5°C goal will be out of reach before 2030.”
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