The United Nations has warned governments that they need to step up action to prevent catastrophic climate change
The warning comes from the UN Environment Program (UNEP) in a major new report that says the chance to limit global temperature rises to below two degrees Celsius is swiftly diminishing.
It comes just days before world leaders meet in Poland for the latest United Nations summit on climate change.
The much-anticipated UNEP annual Gap Report, issued today aims to highlight the efforts needed by governments and businesses to avoid catastrophic climate change.
This year’s report shows that even if nations meet their current climate pledges, greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 are likely to be eight to 12 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) above the level needed to have a good chance of remain below two degrees Celsius by 2020 on the lowest cost pathway.
The report shows that emissions should peak at 44GtCO2e by 2020 and fall to 22GtCO2e by 2050 to stay within a two degrees target.
However, the report says under a business-as-usual scenario, which includes no emissions pledges, emissions would reach 59GtCO2e in 2020.
The report warns that even if countries deliver policies and investments that allow them to meet their current emissions targets, emissions would be just 3-7GtCO2e lower than the business-as-usual scenario.
UNEP is now warning that rising emissions means it is becoming increasingly difficult and expensive to limit warming to safe levels.
However, it concludes it is still possible to meet a two degrees Celsius target if leaders agree more ambitious targets for 2020.
The European Union has said it has already almost achieved its 20 per cent target for 2020 while countries such as Australia are so far prepared to only meet a five per cent target.
The report found governments could go half way to closing the emissions gap if they tightened rules governing existing pledges in the climate negotiations, achieved the top end of their current reduction pledges and further expanded the scope of their current commitments.
The remaining gap could then be bridged by further international and national action.
UNEP says energy efficiency measures could narrow the gap by a further two GtCO2e by 2020, while renewable energy initiatives could cut up to three GtCO2 from the gap.
The report says fossil fuel subsidy reform could also reduce emissions by 0.4 to two GtCO2e by 2020.
UNEP also highlights agriculture as an industry that could slash emissions by 1.1GtCO2e to 4.3GtCO2e through adopting more environmentally sustainable methods.
These include no-tillage practices to reduce emissions from soil disturbance and farm machinery.
Commenting on the study, Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary-General and UNEP Executive Director, urged world leaders to use this year’s Conference of the Parties (COP) to make progress on reaching a global deal to tackle climate change.
“Delayed action means a higher rate of climate change in the near term and likely more near-term climate impacts, as well as the continued use of carbon-intensive and energy-intensive infrastructure,” he said.
The report comes just days after the major consultancy group PwC warned the world was on track to burn through, by 2034, its available “carbon budget” that would allow it to remain on track for less than two degrees
