The 2026-27 El Niño event is set to be the strongest on record and is expected to continue to intensify into early-2027.

Across the Pacific, CARE Australia is warning that drought conditions have already put millions of people at risk of dire food and water shortages, while also disrupting education, increasing health and disease risks significantly, and contributing to worsening economic shocks. These impacts will almost certainly grow worse over coming weeks and months.

Pacific Island countries are uniquely vulnerable to the impacts of a very strong El Niño event due to limited water sources and infrastructure, and vulnerable farmlands. They also require complex logistics to reach those most vulnerable.

The impacts of drought on food and water in the Pacific are expected to disproportionately affect women and girls. As food insecurity worsens, women and girls are often the last to eat, leading to increased stunting and malnutrition. Water insecurity is likely to lead to hygiene concerns for women and girls, increase school dropout rates for girls, and heighten the number of unsafe births. As crises put more pressure on families, this increases the prevalence of violence, abuse and exploitation of women and girls.

In Papua New Guinea (PNG), where 4.7 million people are already drought-affected, schools are seeing closures and absenteeism, and worsening economic conditions are increasing the risks of violence against women and girls and exacerbating underlying tribal and community conflicts.

Whilst El Niño is yet to reach its peak in this region, Emilly Meren, CARE International in PNG Humanitarian Projects Manager, says you can already see the impact of drought on the land.

“It’s supposed to be raining every day and there’s no rain. Where it’s supposed to be lush and green, it’s dry.”

“And you have the impact of the dryness on the land, but what some can forget about is this knock-on effect for people.”

This sentiment is echoed by CARE Timor-Leste Program Director Marsaulina Pasaribu.

“Roughly 80% of the population in Timor-Leste depends on agriculture so if you have failed crops, it has a widespread effect,” she says.

Impact on agricultural activities not only affects food availability but also puts pressure on household income. These impacts in Timor-Leste are expected to disproportionately affect vulnerable groups, including pregnant women, children, older persons, people with disabilities, and households with limited livelihood alternatives.

In Timor-Leste, CARE is currently preparing warnings and tips on water conservation in CARE’s educational magazine, Lafaek, distributed to schoolchildren, teachers and parents in government-registered pre- and primary schools.

In Vanuatu, spreading the word about water conservation is also a priority. The government is advising communities, particularly those that rely heavily on rainwater, to begin water management and conservation measures in preparation for potentially reduced rainfall.

With less than one in five people in Vanuatu having access to safe drinking water, CARE Vanuatu Country Director Sebastien Fesneu says, “El Niño is aggravating what is already a chronic issue – access to water.”

In Vanuatu, women and girls bear primary responsibility for water collection and as sources become depleted, longer travel distances to access water increase exposure to harassment, sexual violence and exploitation.

Food shortages and economic stresses driven by El Niño can also increase family violence as negative household coping strategies.

Some of the communities most at risk from drought in Vanuatu live on the country’s most remote outer islands. Their isolation makes it harder for humanitarian assistance to reach them, increasing their vulnerability to the impacts of El Niño.

CARE is currently preparing to respond across the Pacific region and Timor-Leste, with lifesaving water, sanitation and hygiene kits, food and nutrition, support for people’s livelihoods, and safety and protection services.

CARE and partner organisations work across PNG, Vanuatu, Timor-Leste, Solomon Islands, Samoa, Tonga and Fiji.

“El Niño events are becoming more frequent and intense as a result of climate change,” says Sam Quinn, Climate Lead at CARE Australia.

“Pacific island nations contribute less than 0.03% of global emissions yet face some of the worst impacts of climate change, and we’re yet to see the worst impacts of this El Niño.”

“Investing early in community preparedness and supporting women and girls as leaders in disaster response is key. We need to act before the worst impacts of El Niño materialise, not wait until after it has already taken hold.”

CARE Australia is calling on governments and donors to invest now in community preparedness, water security, climate-resilient livelihoods, and protection services for women and girls before conditions deteriorate further.

To learn more about El Niño, visit care.org.au/emergencies/el-nino/, and to support CARE’s response, please donate to the Global Emergency Fund.